Baseball - preview of the second half of the season

The all star break ends tomorrow, its a good time to preview what awaits us in the second half of the season.

I'll start with the AL East, where my Boston Red Sox are leading the majors so far, despite a shaky bullpen and, in my opinion, an overachieving rotation that will probably see Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront drop in production in the second half of the season.It will be interesting to see how and when does Clay Buchholtz return from his injury, and how long can Jon Lester continue beeing the weak spot in the rotation.After Brandon Workman's stellar debut as a starter it seems like the Sox at least have some depth (along with Allen Webster). It will be also interesting to see when will top prospect Xander Bogaerts make his debut, and what will he look like then.
The Sox are currently leading the division by 2.5 over Tampa Bay and 4.5 over Baltimore, which of course leads to another interesting question - when and by how much will Chris Davis' home run rate slow down? I don't really see him breaking Roger Maris' record (forget the PED controversy with McGwire and Bonds, Roger Maris is still the all time single season record holder at least in the American League), but will he reach 55?
And will Miguel Cabrera reach 50 and at least challenge for another Triple Crown? And speaking of the Tigers, after Max Scherzer had his first loss of the season right before the break - will it be the beginning of a slide, or will he continue to dominate and keep being the leading AL Cy Young candidate? The Tigers have a 1.5 game lead over the Indians, that seem like just won't give up.Considering Cleveland's relatively easy schedule in the remainder of the season, this could turn up to be an epic battle for the division.
In the AL West it will be Oakland vs. Texas all the way.It's funny to see the Angels have almost the same distance from Oakland (11 games) as they have from Houston (11.5). Did I say funny? I meant sad.
Moving to the National League - starting with the East.It currently looks like it's Atlanta's to lose with a 6 game lead over Washington and 6.5 over Philadelphia.The Phillies seem like they're overachieving, and the drop is soon to come, but with Cole Hammels still shaky they do have room to impove.The Nationals are making everybody expect the rise that will come - it hasn't come yet, but there still is time.
The NL Central  is currently where the action is.St. Louis are leading Pittsburgh by one game and Cincinnati by 5.Its going to be close, and everybody will keep asking the same question - will Pittsburgh make it to the playoffs? That, of course, after they're done with asking whether Pittsburgh will finish over .500.
And in the NL West it will be all about the Dodgers vs. Arizona. Currently the Diamondbacks are 2.5 games ahead, but anything can happen, especially with Yasiel Puig (a whole story by itself - will he suffer from a production drop once the opposing pitchers get used to him?), Clayton Kershaw and whoever else will join at the trade deadline.The Rockies are still hanging in, but I doubt they'll stay relevant in September, and the Giants are definitely out of it.

So there it is in brief, a lot of storylines to follow in the second half, I'll try to post more as the season progresses.

Previewing Sports Sunday - March 10th

There is no football or baseball played, so it can't exactly qualify as a Super Sports Sunday, however we do have a day filled with great College Hoops games, as some of the conferences finish off their regular season, and other, low-level ones, are already deep inside their conference tourneys.There is also some early-hour NBA and English FA cup and Premier League soccer.A lot of stuff to preview, so here we go.I'll start with today's College Hoops, which will be my main topic of interest in the next three weeks, all the way till March Madness ends.

The Big Ten finale seems a crazy enough finale for this insane season.Indiana are traveling to Michigan, and a victory will guarantee them the solo regular season conference title, which they could have clinched last week, if they have beat Ohio State at home.Which they didn't.Now a loss in Ann Arbor will not only share the conference title with Michigan, but also give Ohio State (hosting Illinois) and Michigan State (hosting second to last Northwestern, that won only two conference games on the road, one of which was at Penn State) a share of the title in case of a victory.

VCU will be travelling to Temple, where a victory will give them a share of the Atlantic 10 title in their first season at the conference.In case of a loss - St. Louis will hold the title alone, which will be an appropriate ending to a very emotional season for the Billikens, following Rick Majerus' death in December.For Temple it will be the last ever home game in the Atlantic 10, as they're moving to the "Old" Big East after 21 years in the A-10.

The finals of the Missouri Valley Conference tourney will be also held today, as the two best teams in the division, Creighton and Wichita State will be playing each other for the third time this season (each won their home game). Wichita State are trying to win the title for the first time since 1987, while Creighton won it last year, beating Illinois State in the finals.

Another conference that will be having it's finals today is the Big South, where surprising Liberty, that eliminated North Division top ranked team High Point in the quarterfinals, followed by a victory over South Division second ranked Gardner-Webb will be playing South Division's top team, Charleston Southern that have won the title for the last time in 1997, beating none other than Liberty (that have won it last in 2004).

Outside of College Hoops, two highly interesting matches will be played in England.In the FA cup Manchester United will be hosting Chelsea in a game that always delivers the drama.In addition, in the Premier League Liverpool will be hosting third placed Tottenham Hotspur, with Gareth Bale on fire as he's been seemingly all season.
Another interesting match in European soccer will be held in France, as second placed Lyon will host third placed Marseilles, as both teams try to gain ground in the race for the Champions League spots, and not to let PSG run away with the championship.

If it's not enough - in the NBA the Celtics are travelling to Oklahoma City in today's early game.Boston are currently #6 in the East, but could finish the night at #5, in case of a win and a Bulls loss to the Lakers in tonight's second early game.OKC will do all they can to avoid a stumble as they're chasing San Antonio for the top spot in the West.

So these are the main stories to follow today, and I didn't even include a full day of tennis action at the Indian Wells tourneys (both men and women) and Italian Serie A soccer.
So as usual - pour yourself a pint of beer, grab something to eat, and let's all enjoy the games!

NBA Draft - #2 vs. #3

Getting the second draft pick is supposed to be better than the third, right? You're getting the better player.Pretty simple, isn't it? But lets take a look at the recent history and see if the outcome truly met the expectation.
For this analysis I checked the 20 drafts between 1992-2011.Its too early to determine the outcome for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal, the #2 and #3 picks in the last draft, so I'll put them aside for now.I'll rank each player on the following scale:
10 - Hall Of Fame lock (the LeBrons, Shaqs and Kobes of the world)
9 - Franchise player, a tier below Hall Of Fame (for example: Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard)
8 - All Star (Joakim Noah, Zach Randolph)
7 - Solid starter (Andre Miller, Raymond Felton)
6 - Rotation player (Randy Foye, Mike Miller)
5 - Bust (Eddy Curry, Shaun Livingston)
4 - Complete bust (Michael Olowokandi, Dajuan Wagner)

I'll keep both the accumulated score, and the head-to-head for each draft.Lets see what conclusions will we find

1992 - Alonzo Mourning vs. Christian Laettner
Zo is the classic 9.Laettner did make one All-Star appearance (in 1997) but he's a 7, not an 8.So its a decisive victory for the #2s.

Acummulated score: 9-7 for #2s
Head-to-Head score: 1-0 for #2s

1993 - Shawn Bradley vs. Penny Hardaway
Bradley is widely considered a bust, but he actually had a solid career, playing in the league for 12 years and averaging 23 minutes per game.Thats enough to earn him a 6.
Penny could have been a 10 if it wasn't for his injuries.He was a 9 for three seasons after Shaq left Orlando, but that's not enough to earn him that grade.I'll grade him an 8.
#3s win this one, and we're tied.

Acummulated score: 15-15
Head-to-Head score: 1-1 

1994 - Jason Kidd vs. Grant Hill
One of the best #2-#3 tandems in the last 20 years.Kidd was consistently one of the best point guards in the league, has one championship ring and two Finals appearances.He's probably the second best #2 pick in that time frame, so no doubt here - 10.
Hill could have been there as well, but like Hardaway, injuries have hurt his career bad enough.He's still a solid 8, though

Acummulated score: 25-23 #2s
Head-to-Head score: 2-1  #2s

1995 - Antonio McDyess vs. Jerry Stackhouse
It was very hard to compare those two.Stackhouse has two All-Star appearances, McDyess has one.What probably makes the difference is that Stackhouse was the best player on his team in his peak (with Detroit in the late 90s), McDyess never was.In addition Stackhouses's peak has lasted longer.So it will be 8 for Stackhouse, 7 for McDyess.

Acummulated score: 32-31 #2s
Head-to-Head score: 2-2

1996 - Marcus Camby vs. Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Abdur-Rahim has made the All-Star team once, and was the best player on weak teams for several seasons, averaging at least 19.9 points for seven straight seasons.Camby was always the definition of a solid starter. 8-7 for Abdur-Rahim.

Acummulated score: 39-39
Head-to-Head score: 3-2 #3s

1997 - Keith Van Horn vs. Chauncey Billups
Van Horn is another example of a player that most remember for not living up to the hype, but forget he was actually quite a good player, averaging over 15 points in each of his first seven seasons.He's a 7.
Billups, on the other hand, has 5 All-Star appearances and a record of being the leader of pretty much every place he step his feet at.The 2004 NBA Finals MVP award solidifies his grade as a 9

Acummulated score: 48-46 #3s
Head-to-Head score: 4-2 #3s

1998 - Mike Bibby vs. Raef LaFrentz
I was shocked to find out that Bibby has never made an All-Star team.During is Sacramento years he definitely played like an All-Star, and was a centerpiece for a legendary team (although not their superstar).He'll get an 8, even without having an All-Star appearance.
LaFrentz has had only 5 seasons with over 75 games, another one with 69.When he was healthy he would have qualified for a solid starter grade, but he wasn't healthy enough.It will be a 6, #2s claw one back.

Acummulated score: 54-54 
Head-to-Head score: 4-3 #3s

1999 - Steve Francis vs. Baron Davis
Both have multiple All-Star appearances, so they both qualify for an 8.Neither is good enough to make a 9.Francis had a much shorter peak, and a bigger crash, so even though both get an 8, Davis will get an advantage in the head-to-head.

Acummulated score: 62-62 
Head-to-Head score: 5-3 #3s

2000 - Stromile Swift vs. Darius Miles
Ugh.Miles had about two seasons as a rotation player.Swift was a journey man that did pretty much nothing.5 to each, with Miles getting the head-to-head advantage for having at least some value at his peak.

Acummulated score: 67-67 
Head-to-Head score: 6-3 #3s

2001 - Tyson Chandler vs. Pau Gasol
It took Chandler time to solidify himself as an All-Star level player.Gasol made impact from the beginning, and was the franchise player for a playoff team in Memphis and then the second best player on a two-time championship team in LA.9-8 Gasol.

Acummulated score: 76-75 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 7-3 #3s

2002 - Jay Williams vs. Mike Dunleavy Jr.
Williams is the definition of a total bust.4, without question.
Dunleavy has averaged 9.9 points or more in every season except for his rookie year, and did start in more than two thirds of his games.He gets a solid starter's 7.

Acummulated score: 83-79 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 8-3 #3s

2003 - Darko Milicic vs. Carmelo Anthony
At first I thought Milicic could pass as a rotation player, but then I took a closer look at his numbers.He has never averaged more than 9 points or 26 minutes per game.That can only qualify as a 5.
Anthony isn't quite at the LeBron-Kobe-Durant level, he'll get a 9. Looks like the #3s continue pulling away.

Acummulated score: 92-83 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 9-3 #3s

2004 - Emeka Okafor vs. Ben Gordon 
Emeka was a solid starter throughout his career. Gordon was usually a sixth player (what gave him the Sixth Man Of The Year award in his rookie season) but produces starter numbers.Both get a 7, with Okafor getting the head-to-head advantage.

Acummulated score: 99-90 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 9-4 #3s

2005 - Marvin Williams vs. Deron Williams
Marvin Williams is a #2 that will always be defined by the defined by the two guys that followed him.He himself is actually a good player, good enough to get solid starter grade.
Deron, of course, is another story.Like Carmelo - not good enough for a 10, but definitely good enough for a 9.

Acummulated score: 108-97 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 10-4 #3s

2006 - LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Adam Morrison
Finally the #2s get their big break.Aldridge is currently a solidified All-Star, with potential to rise the the Anthony-Deron-Bosh level.Morrison, on the other hand, was a complete bust.So thats 8-4 for the #2s.


Acummulated score: 112-105 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 10-5 #3s

2007 - Kevin Durant vs. Al Horford
Durant is the best #2 pick in the 20 year time span, maybe even in history, and a sure Hall Of Fame lock.Horford already has two All-Star appearances, with probably more to come. 10-8 #2s.

Acummulated score: 120-115 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 10-6 #3s

2008 - Michael Beasley vs. O.J. Mayo
Being a Suns fan, it's hard for me to be objective regarding Beasley.Objectively his numbers are good enough for a starter.Mayo has revived his career and his starter status this year in Dallas.Both will get a 7, however Mayo's career is on its way up, Beasley's seems on its way down, Mayo will get the head-to-head advantage.

Acummulated score: 127-122 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 11-6 #3s

2009 - Hasheem Thabeet vs. James Harden
The total bust vs. the player that is currently setting himself up as a franchise player in Houston.9-4 Harden.

Acummulated score: 136-126 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 12-6 #3s

2010 - Evan Turner vs. Derrick Favors
That's a tough one, considering the fact that neither of them has truly broken out yet.However Turner has already broken into the Philly starting 5, Favors hasn't (not completely by his fault - Utah is currently loaded in his position).It will be 7-6 for Turner.

Acummulated score: 142-133 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 12-7 #3s

2011 - Derrick Williams vs. Enes Kanter
Another tough one.Williams has received some chances and didn't take advantage of them, Kanter didn't even have this yet.Its too early to call either of them a bust, so they'll both get a 6, and Williams will get the advantage.

Acummulated score: 148-139 #3s 
Head-to-Head score: 12-8 #3s

So there we have it.In 60% of the drafts in the last 20 years the #3 pick turned out better than the #2.On average the #2 pick produces a player of 6.95 - a solid starter, while #3 produces 7.4 - an above average starter.
I could have played with the numbers a bit more, draw some more conclusions.I might do it, but it will be in a different time, in a different post.

Cheers till the next time.

Previewing Super Sports Sunday

When it comes to being a sports fan, Sunday is definitely the best day of the week.When you're also a fan of American sports and live in Israel with a 7 hour time difference, Sunday is pretty much the only day of the week when you can follow all your favourite sports at once, at a decent time.Throw in a batch of quality European soccer - and you get what I call Super Sports Sunday.

Today's Super Sports Sunday starts at 15:15 (my local time) with the biggest match the English Premier League has to offer - the Manchester Derby, as league leaders Manchester United travel to Etihad Stadium to play current champions, Manchester City, who are currently ranked second, three points behind United.
Still in Europe, 45 minutes after the kick-off in Manchester - 5 matches in the Italian Serie A are kicking off.The most interesting one will be played in Sicily as struggling Palermo will host league leaders Juventus.Palermo are having an unusually bad season as they're only 2 points above relegation zone, while Juventus are still leading the league (2 points clear of Napoli).The real match of the day in Italy will be played at 21:45 - but I'll get to that a bit later.

Moving to 20:00 o'clock and across the ocean - its week 14 in the NFL, with no less than 10 matches kicking off (3 more will kick off between 23:15-23:15, and the Sunday Night Football match at late night).The Chicago Bears are travelling to Minnesota for a classis NFC North rivalry match.The Vikings are quite mediocre this season (which is an improvement compared to last year), but have lost at home only once this season, and would like nothing more than to ruin the Bears' playoff aspirations.The Dallas Cowboys will try to gain ground in the messed up NFC East, but they will have to get it in Cincinatti, where the Bengals are trying to keep their heads above the water in the AFC wildcard race.Another team with an outside chance at wildcard contention are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that will host the circus that's going on with the Philadelphia Eagles.Atlanta will play in Carolina, and are unlikely to stumble against a team that has won only once at home this season.Pittsburgh (hosting San Diego) and Indianapolis (hosting Tennessee) are unlikely to stumble either.

Moving to 21:45, and back to Italy - as #3 Inter are hosting #2 Napoli.Inter are currently 4 points from the top, Napoli are 2.I won't even try to predict that one.

Back in the NFL - in the three matches that start between 23:15-23:25 the Giants (host New Orleans), 49ers (host Miami) and Seattle (host Arizona, and still undefeated at home) will likely get the Ws

No really interesting basketball games tonight, and thats too bad.But nonetheless its still going to be a great day of American Football and European Soccer.

So pour yourselves a glass of beer, seat back and enjoy the show!

A recommendation

While I'm not posting anything new, let me suggest one of the greatest sports blogs I know - Let, Second Serve is a tennis blog written by a friend of mine, and is one of the deepest, more serious blogs on the net.

Let, Second Serve

I'll post new stuff towards the weekend.
Cheers till then.

MMA - UFC Welterweight Division power rankings

For a long time the UFC Welterweight division has been the most fascinating one for me.Of course, its a bit hard to call a division that for the past 4.5 years has been totally dominated by a seemingly unbeatable champion fascinating, but for the past 3-4 years the top of the division has been filled with fighters of seemingly even level, where each can beat the other on any given night, and each can deserve a title shot without raising an eyebrow.I'll try to sort out my current rankings at the top of the division, and see where things seem to be going for the near future.

1. Georges St. Pierre
In other news, the sun will shine tomorrow from the east, Stefan Struve is one tall dude and Chael Sonnen doesn't deserve the title shot.Move along, people, nothing to see here.

2.Johny Hendricks
He KOed John Fitch and Martin Kampmann in a combined time of less than a minute, and grinded decision victories over expert grinders Josh Koscheck and Mike Pierce.And he's the official #1 contender, so who am I to argue.

3.Carlos Condit
Although he's coming off a loss to GSP, he's still 5-1 in his last 6 fights, with four of these five being Jake Ellenberger, Rory McDonald, Dong-Hyun Kim and Nick Diaz.If I was Joe Silva, I would give him a rematch against Kampmann next.

4.Jon Fitch
His only two losses in the last 10 years were against the men ranked #1 and #2 on this list.However he's 1-1-1 in his last three fights, and with all due respect to the victory over Erick Silva, he still needs one more win to rise back to #2 or at least #3.This win will most come at the Demian Maia fight at UFC 156 in early February.

5.Martin Kampmann
Pretty much the same reasoning as the one that put Condit at #3 over Fitch.He's coming off a brutal loss to Hendricks, but he was in a #1 contenders match for a reason, and that reason being victories over Rick Story, Thiago Alves and, most importantly, Jake Ellenberger.

6.Jake Ellenberger
The KO loss to Kampmann was Ellenberger's only loss in his last 8 fights.Although his only upper-tier victories in this period were over Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez, its still a record to be reckoned with

7.Rory MacDonald
Seriously - I have no idea why I'm jumping on this bandwagon, with all due respect to the youngster's heroic performance in the loss to Carlos Condit.I suppose this one would be more based on upside than on record.After he beats BJ Penn next week (which I'm sure he will), he'll probably jump to #5, and this time I'll be less doubting.

8.Nick Diaz
He's one of the dumbest fighters to ever step foot in the octagon, and most of the time he's a disgrace to the sport of MMA.But he also has a really good record of 11 wins in a row before his loss to Carlos Condit - which was controversial enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.I hope he will get the fight with Koscheck they both want so badly, so I can see two of my least favourite fighters beat the living hell out of each other.

9.Demian Maia
He has just moved to the welterweight division, but victories over Dong-Hyun Kim and Rick Story are a nice start.I'm quite certain he'll lose to Fitch in February (although he does have a submission win over Chael Sonnen at middleweight).

10. Josh Koscheck
Currently not in a great momentum, and injured.But his track record can't be ignored.

So that was a recap on the UFC welterweight division.The Rory MacDonald - BJ Penn fight on Saturday will probably shake some things up, and so will an impressive outcome in the Mike Swick - Matt Brown fight on the same card.At some point I'll probably try to do similar rankings regarding other divisions.

College basketball - stories to follow in December

College hoops season has wrapped up its first month, its a good time to look forward to December and the most interesting stories to follow before conference play starts.
The most interesting one would be the struggle between Duke and Indiana for the #1 spot in the rankings.Indiana has got the talent, probably the best roster in college basketball today.And they're about to get big men Peter Jurkin, Hanner Mosquera-Perrea and Derek Elston back from suspensions (the former two) and injuries (Elston).Duke, on the other hand, just keep winning.Having beaten Kentucky, Louisville and Ohio State should have been enough for the #1 spot for them, especially considering the fact that the only quality victory the Hoosiers have so far is over North Carolina, which is ranked lower than the three previously mentioned.Both teams have six non-conference games to play, all against low-level teams, with the only exceptions being Indiana hosting Butler, and Duke hosting Temple - games in which they shouldn't stumble.Most probably until the Hoosiers lose they will still possess the #1 spot, and that might take time, as their conference schedule in January is probably the easiest they could get, with home games against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the only semi-tough away games being at Northwestern and at Purdue.At that time Duke will have to play at NC State and at Miami, with a big enough chance to drop one of those two.I expect the chips to fall somewhere around the second week of February.

The second interesting story for me leading into December would be the Kentucky Wildcats.The team that tried to reload right after losing their six leading players in the summer simply doesn't look as frightening as they were expected to.The loss to Duke at the Champions Classic was understandable and forgivable, the loss to Notre Dame - now that one starts to rise eyebrows.Then came the loss to Baylor (I actually started writing this post long before the game, but by the time I reached this sentence I've received the update).Things are not looking well for the team that was ranked #3 before the season, and they still have a game against Louisville in the end of December right before conference play begins.When it begins the first four games will be at Vanderbilt, at home against Texas A&M and Tennessee, and then at Auburn - four games that should be won.

A team that will gain the most from a Kentucky downfall would be the Florida Gators.Currently at 6-0, carrying a quality win over Wisconsin, and a trashing of Marquette at the SEC-Big East Challenge, the Gators actually have a tougher schedule in December than in November, with games at Florida State, at Arizona, and at home against Kansas State.Entering conference play even with two losses will still make them SEC favorites.One loss will put them in the top 5 ranking, and in the unlikely case of finishing December undefeated one could make the case for them as potential Final Four contenders, at least for the time being.

In other places:Louisville, that have dropped from the #2 ranking to #5 following the loss to Duke, Syracuse, that are currently at #6 but without any really impressive wins so far except for maybe the win against San Diego State, and Cincinnati who are still undefeated, will be all looking to gain momentum before the upcoming Big East season.#4 Ohio State and #10 Kansas will try to avoid upsets before their clash at Value City Arena in Columbus on December 22nd.And there is also a North Carolina team that like Kentucky seem to be struggling early in the season and a Michigan team that seem to be ready for the battles against Indiana and Ohio State at the top of the Big Ten, which currently seems to be the strongest conference until the ACC and the Big East strugglers prove otherwise.

So its going to be a long month of college hoops, that will probably raise more questions than answers.And thats before conference play even begins.